Is Jimmy Carter Eligible to Run Again
From the very showtime of his presidency, Donald Trump has never really left "campaign mode" — but as the side by side election gets closer, that approach has turned into a more physical play for victory in 2020. But Trump is not alone. He has challengers in the 2020 Republican principal, nigh notably, former Massachusetts Governor Nib Weld, onetime South Carolina congressman Marking Sanford and former Illinois congressman Joe Walsh.
This campaign is the first time an incumbent president has faced a challenger with name recognition within his own party since 1992, when Republican president George H.West. Bush faced a challenge from more bourgeois Pat Buchanan — but that wasn't the only time a sitting President has had to fight for his spot on the ballot.
Before master elections became the dominant mode to pick a nominee, party leaders were more able to either close downwards challengers or smoothly laissez passer the nomination to someone else. Notably, four incumbents who were denied the nomination in the 19th century — John Tyler, Andrew Johnson and Chester A. Arthur — had been Vice Presidents who rose to the Presidency post-obit the deaths of their predecessors, possibly suggesting they'd never won their parties' total support in the offset place.
Both Tyler and Fillmore, who were Whig Party presidents, were denied the nomination because the political battles surrounding slavery: Tyler in 1844, over the annexation of Texas, which he supported but which would upset the residuum of gratis and slave states; Fillmore in 1852 over his support of the Avoiding Slave Human activity. (Democratic President Franklin Pierce, who ended up winning the 1852 election, also lost his party's nomination after one term, equally many Northern Democrats felt his support for the Kansas-Nebraska Act was besides conciliatory to pro-slavery Southerners.) Johnson was the commencement president to be impeached, in February 1868, so he didn't go either party's nomination. And Arthur, who succeeded President James Garfield, was denied the 1884 Republican nomination, though he didn't actively seek it because he was suffering from kidney disease.
Some of the first primaries were held in 1912. Barbara A. Perry, the Director of Presidential Studies at the University of Virginia'south Miller Heart of Public Affairs, who spoke to TIME as function of a presidential-history partnership between Time History and the Miller Middle, points out that those 1912 primaries were products of the progressive-era populist movement, every bit former President Teddy Roosevelt unsuccessfully tried to unseat incumbent President William Taft by forming the Progressive Political party, as well known as the Balderdash Moose Party.
Fifty-fifty afterward that flow, not all primaries tin can be evaluated the same way. In fact, the system in use today is just about 50 years old. Candidates didn't commonly have to compete in all of the primaries until party reforms in the early 1970s made primaries (rather than party leaders) key to determining who gets the nomination.
"New rules make information technology easier for anyone to run," says Hans Noel, professor of Government at Georgetown Academy and co-author of The Political party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform, "but also created more demand for informal pressure level for making sure things don't go awry."
While an incumbent President has never lost a master nomination in modernistic U.S. history, these five challengers put up a serious fight.
Truman vs. Kefauver (1952)
Estes Kefauver on the Mar. 24, 1952, encompass of Fourth dimension
Boris Chaliapin
In 1952, Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver challenged President Harry Due south. Truman for the Democratic Political party nomination. Even though he didn't win the nomination, he changed the entire state of the race. When Kefauver won the New Hampshire chief — the showtime primary of the campaign season — Truman decided non to run for re-ballot.
At the time, Democrats were bitterly divided. The Northern Democrats had spearheaded the addition of a civil rights plank to the party platform at the 1948 convention, leading the Southern Democrats to grade a spin-off "Dixiecrat" coalition. Any candidate would face trouble securing widespread back up. "[Truman's] defeat by Kefauver in the New Hampshire preference primary emphasized that he was not the unanimous choice of Northern Democrats," Fourth dimension reported in its April seven, 1952, commodity on Truman'due south dropping out.
On top of that, in one case information technology became clear that World War Two hero Dwight D. Eisenhower was poised to get the Republican nomination, Truman, whose Assistants had been entangled in scandals in 1951, realized he probably wouldn't be able to win anyhow. Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson ended upward winning the Autonomous Party nomination, but losing the general ballot to Eisenhower. Meanwhile, Truman would tie Richard Nixon for the dubious honor of the lowest approving ratings upon leaving office.
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Johnson vs. McCarthy (1968)
Senator Eugene McCarthy (D-MN) on the Mar. 22, 1968, cover of Fourth dimension.
While President Lyndon B. Johnson won the New Hampshire chief on March 12, 1968, politicos thought he should have beaten radical anti-war Democratic Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota by a larger margin than the seven points with which he pulled it off. "People thought that information technology was shut for an incumbent president and [Johnson] looked vulnerable considering of the Vietnam War," says Perry.
TIME reported that McCarthy's surprisingly strong showing in the New Hampshire main was a argument that was "as much anti-Johnson as antiwar," citing a NBC poll that found more than half of Democrats didn't even know McCarthy's position on Vietnam. Less than a calendar week after New Hampshire, Attorney Full general Robert Kennedy jumped into the race. So, on March 31, Johnson appear he wasn't going to run for re-ballot.
Every bit Time reported in the April 12, 1968, commodity on Johnson dropping out, "So low had Johnson'due south popularity sunk, said one Democratic official, that last-minute surveys earlier the Wisconsin main gave him a humiliating 12% of the vote there." Merely even with Johnson out of the race, his decisions on Vietnam plagued his Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, the eventual nominee. Protesters took to the street during the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago to protestation the fact that Humphrey won the nomination without campaigning in a primary, and Humphrey went on to lose the Presidential ballot to one-time Vice President Richard Nixon.
As a upshot of this race, both the Democratic and Republican parties made rules changes in the early on 1970s that created today's modern primary-centric nomination process.
Ford vs. Reagan (1976)
From left: Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Gerald Ford, on the June 21, 1976, cover of Fourth dimension
Michael Evans; Dirck Halstead; Paul Keating
The 1976 campaign season was the year in which primaries started to matter more than than ever earlier, and is considered the closest a sitting President has come up to losing his party's nomination in modern history. President Gerald Ford — who was elected to the House of Representatives, but became kickoff Vice President so President cheers to the resignations of Spiro Agnew and Richard Nixon — was vulnerable, thanks especially his unpopular determination to pardon Nixon. The nomination was notwithstanding up for grabs when the Republican National Convention started in Kansas City, Mo., merely Ford eked out win the twenty-four hours before the convention was supposed to finish.
That summer, TIME reported that 55% of Americans believed it was wrong for Gerald Ford to pardon Nixon, and that polls showed Republicans rated Ronald Reagan higher than Ford in leadership and decisiveness. But some politicking by Ford's strategists enabled the incumbent president to edge out his opponent. He racked up i,187 delegates compared to Ronald Reagan'due south 1,070, which was barely more than the 1,130 he needed to secure the nomination.
In the general election, Autonomous Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter ended up winning for, every bit pundits said, being the reverse of Nixon. "Battered by the Vietnam War, Watergate, scandals and abuses in high places," Fourth dimension noted in a cover story that year, "many Americans clearly welcome Carter'due south confidence in them and the worth of their country, and his soft-spoken promise to restore a moral purpose to national life."
Carter vs. Kennedy (1980)
Pictured (center), Democratic presidential nominee Jimmy Carter, (R), puts his arm around Senator Edward G. Kennedy (L) as he arrived at Logan International Airport in Boston on Sep. 30, 1976, for a four-hour campaign blitz.
Bettmann/Getty
Later on Jimmy Carter's kickoff term in the White House, he got a challenge in the form of Massachusetts U.Southward. Senator Ted Kennedy, the blood brother of John F. Kennedy and Robert F. Kennedy. Carter won 36 primaries that year, simply Kennedy'southward 12 victories included important ones in New York and California, and he didn't concede until Aug. 11, 1980, at the Democratic National Convention at Madison Square Garden in New York Urban center. Unlike his brothers, "Kennedy could not articulate any appreciation of the economic anguish of Centre Americans," as Fourth dimension put it back then.
At the DNC, he endorsed Carter in a sentence and laid out the Democratic Party's vision in what TIME called "the speech of his life" in his 2009 obituary. That speech was also the launchpad for a new affiliate in his Senate career.
Ronald Reagan went on to win the full general election, and Carter's loss made Democratic Party officials recall that perhaps they needed to once once again have more of a role in choosing the nominee — leading to the introduction of superdelegates as part of the nominating process for the 1984 election.
Bush vs. Buchanan (1992)
Conservative Republican presidential hopeful Pat Buchanan displaying The New Hampshire Union Leader headlining his triumph and threat to frontrunner and incumbent President George H.Due west. Bush-league on Feb. ane, 1992.
Steve Liss/The LIFE Images Collection—Getty Images
When he decided to challenge President George H.W. Bush in 1992, bourgeois pundit Pat Buchanan never won a primary, but he helped expose a rift in the GOP — thus opening room for Ross Perot to brand a third-political party run, and arguably foreshadowing Trump's eventually ballot. As Buchanan framed the difference between the candidates, while launching his entrada in Dec 1991: "[Bush-league] is a globalist and we are nationalists. He believes in some Pax Universalis; we believe in the old Republic. He would put America's wealth and power at the service of some vague New World Order; we will put America first." On meridian of that, Buchanan and his supporters felt betrayed by Bush-league's having broken his famous entrada pledge, "Read my lips: No new taxes."
Democratic Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton ended up winning the general election.
Does a primary challenge injure an incumbent?
"The conventional wisdom is that primary opponents harm incumbents in the full general election, although this is hard to prove," says Robert G. Boatright, editor of T he Routledge Handbook of Chief Elections .
Crucially, it'south difficult to establish cause and effect when a challenged incumbent loses the full general ballot. For example, embattled incumbents Ford, Truman and LBJ had all come up to the presidency either upon the death or departure of their predecessors, the Miller Heart'southward Perry notes, then it's possible the public thought they didn't "alive upward to the previous president." And even those challenged incumbents who weren't in that situation were facing troubles of their own.
"It'south probably not that the challenge itself weakened the nominee," says Noel, "but the fact that they were weak drew their challenge in the showtime place. So just being challenged is non a proficient sign."
That may be i reason why information technology's non more mutual for Presidents today to become primary challengers, even though the electric current system of primaries gives party leaders less power to steer the selection process. Political party leaders still hold critical sway behind the scenes and can discourage people from running birthday, and, adds Noel, fewer people may be interested in disagreeing with a President from inside a party anyway.
"Parties were withal large tents and had factions and wings, and at present parties are and then polarized and monolithic," says Perry. "If our parties are becoming more monolithic, so who is there to claiming?"
Source: https://time.com/5682760/incumbent-presidents-primary-challenges/
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